Most traders know how to
draw a channel but not many know you can
use the information used to create the
channel to find possible turning points
in the market.
First
lets look at the traditional channel.
You would first identify a trend and
draw a trend line. Next you duplicate
the exact angle of that trend line and
move it to a recent high in an up trend
or a recent low in a down trend. This
produces a channel. The idea is that as
price approaches the upper channel line
in an up trend we would expect to find
sellers there and this would either
reverse the trend or at least pause the
trend for a time.
In a down
trend you would expect the same thing.
As price approaches the lower channel
line you would expect to find buyers and
for the trend to stop or temporarily
pause for a time.
If price
overshoots the channel line this can
often signify an overbought situation in
an up trend or an oversold condition in
a down trend. This overshooting of the
channel line signifies an exhaust of
momentum in the market.
Now lets
look at a slightly more unique way to
use the channel. In the first chart the
line labeled T1 is the original trend
line. The line labeled T2 is this same
line duplicated and moved forward to
touch a high and containing all if not
95% of price action.
Now this
is where it begins to get interesting.
Most charting software will allow you to
draw lines of varying length so if you
draw a line connecting T1 to T2 this
will give you the width of the channel.
We will call this line T3.
If you
duplicate T3 and in an up trend move it
so that it is touching and below T1 you
have a projection of where a retracement
might halt. This line we shall call T4.
You can then duplicate T1 and connect it
to the lower part of T4 giving you a new
line, which we will call T5.
It will
amaze you how often price will stop at
T5. At the very least you have an
estimate of where price may retrace too.
See Chart Below

On the
second chart we have an established down
trend with little retracement
continuation patterns. By using the same
process as above we can use the channel
width as projected target points. In
this way you can use the channel
projection not only as a possible
retracement level but all as a possible
target level.
See Chart
