I came across this
article that I thought everyone should
read. Even though it was published a
long time ago, the information is just
as relevant today.
I have always used a bit
of Gann's trading methods in my own
trading - especially to determine trend.
Love him or hate him, it would be a
brave trader that would deny that Gann
was one of the most influential traders
of the last century.
The following article appeared in
the December 1909 issue of The Ticker &
Investment*Digest.
Some time ago the
attention of this magazine was attracted
by certain long pull Stock*Market
predictions which were being made by
William D. Gann. In a large number of
cases Mr Gann gave us, in advance, the
exact points at which certain stocks and
commodities would sell, together with
prices close to the then prevailing
figures which would not be touched.
For instance, when the
New York Central was 131 he predicted
that it would sell at 145 before 129. So
repeatedly did his figures prove to be
accurate, and so different did his work
appear from that of any expert whose
methods we had examined, that we set
about to investigate Mr Gann and his way
of figuring out these predictions, as
well as the particular use which he was
making of them in the market.
The results of this
investigation are remarkable in many
ways. It appears to be a fact that Mr
Gann has developed an entirely new idea
as to the principles governing stock
market movements. He bases his
operations upon certain natural laws
which, though existing since the world
began, have only in recent years been
subjected to the will of man and added
to the list of so-called modern
discoveries.
We have asked Mr Gann
for an outline of his work, and have
secured some remarkable evidence as to
the results obtained therefrom. We
submit this in full recognition of the
fact that in Wall Street a man with a
new idea, an idea which violates the
traditions and encourages a scientific
view of the Proposition, is not usually
welcomed by the majority, for the reason
that he stimulates thought and research.
These activities the said majority
abhors.
Mr Gann's description of
his experience and methods is given
herewith. It should be read with
recognition of the established fact that
Mr Gann's predictions have proved
correct in a large majority of
instances.
"For the past ten years
I have devoted my entire time and
attention to the speculative markets.
Like many others, I lost thousands of
dollars and experienced the usual ups
and downs incidental to the novice who
enters the market without preparatory
knowledge of the subject.
"I soon began to realise
that all successful men, whether
Lawyers, Doctors or Scientists, devoted
years of time to the study and
investigation of their particular
pursuit or profession before attempting
to make any money out of it.
"Being in the Brokerage
business myself and handling large
accounts, I had opportunities seldom
afforded the ordinary man for studying
the cause of success and failure in the
speculations of others. I found that
over ninety percent of the traders who
go into the market without knowledge or
study usually lose in the end.
"I soon began to note
the periodical recurrence of the rise
and fall in stocks and commodities. This
led me to conclude that natural law was
the basis of market movements. I then
decided to devote ten years of my life
to the study of natural law as
applicable to the speculative markets
and to devote my best energies toward
making speculation a profitable
profession. After exhaustive researches
and investigations of the known
sciences, I discovered that the law of
vibration enabled me to accurately
determine the exact points at which
stocks or commodities should rise and
fall within a given time. The working
out of this law determines the cause and
predicts the effect long before the
street is aware of either. Most
speculators can testify to the fact that
it is looking at the effect and ignoring
the cause that has produced their
losses.
"It is impossible here
to give an adequate idea of the law of
vibrations as I apply it to the markets.
However, the layman may be able to grasp
some of the principles when I state that
the law of vibration is the fundamental
law upon which wireless telegraphy,
wireless telephone and phonographs are
based. Without the existence of this law
the above inventions would have been
impossible.
"In order to test the
efficiency of my idea I have not only
put in years of labour in the regular
way, but I spent nine months working
night and day in the Astor Library in
New York and in the British Museum of
London, going over the records of stock
transactions as far back as 1820. I have
incidentally examined the manipulations
of Jay Gould, Daniel Drew, Commodore
Vanderbilt & all other important
manipulators from that time to the
present day. I have examined every
quotation of Union Pacific prior to &
from the time of E.H. Harriman, Mr
Harriman's was the most masterly. The
figures show that, whether unconsciously
or not, Mr Harriman worked strictly in
accordance with natural law.
"In going over the
history of markets and the great mass of
related statistics, it soon becomes
apparent that certain laws govern the
changes and variations in the value of
stocks, and that there exists a periodic
or cyclic law which is at the back of
all these movements. Observation has
shown that there are regular periods of
intense activity on the Exchange
followed by periods of inactivity. Mr
Henry Hall in his recent book devoted
much space to ' Cycles of Prosperity and
Depression', which he found recurring at
regular intervals of time. The law which
I have applied will not only give these
long cycles or swings, but the daily and
even hourly movements of stocks. By
knowing the exact vibration of each
individual*stock I am able to determine
at what point each will receive support
and at what point the greatest
resistance is to be met.
"Those in close touch
with the market have noticed the
phenomena of ebb and flow, or rise and
fall, in the value of stocks. At certain
times a*stock will become intensely
active, large transactions being made in
it; at other times this same stock will
become practically stationary or
inactive with a very small volume of
sales. I have found that the law of
vibration governs and controls these
conditions. I have also found that
certain phases of this law govern the
rise in a stock and an entirely
different rule operates on the decline.
"While Union Pacific and
other railroad stocks which made their
high prices in August were declining,
United States Steel Common was steadily
advancing. The law of vibration was at
work, sending a particular stock on the
upward trend whilst others were trending
downward. "I have found that in the
stock itself exists its harmonic or
inharmonious relationship to the driving
power or force behind it. The secret of
all its activity is therefore apparent.
By my method I can determine the
vibration of each stock and also, by
taking certain time values into
consideration, I can, in the majority of
cases, tell exactly what the stock will
do under given conditions.
"The power to determine
the trend of the market is due to my
knowledge of the characteristics of each
individual stock and a certain grouping
of different stocks under their proper
rates of vibration. Stocks are like
electrons, atoms and molecules, which
hold persistently to their own
individuality in response to the
fundamental law of vibration. Science
teaches that 'an original impulse of any
kind finally resolves itself into a
periodic or rhythmical motion; also,
just as the pendulum returns again in
its swing, just as the moon returns in
its orbit, just as the advancing year
over brings the rose of spring, so do
the properties of the elements
periodically recur as the weight of the
atoms rises.'
"From my extensive
investigations, studies and applied
tests, I find that not only do the
various stocks vibrate, but that the
driving forces controlling the stocks
are also in a state of vibration. These
vibratory forces can only be known by
the movements they generate on the
stocks and their values in the market.
Since all great swings or movements of
the market are cyclic, they act in
accordance with periodic law.
"Science has laid down
the principle that 'the properties of an
element are a periodic function of its
atomic weight'. A famous scientist has
stated that 'we are brought to the
conviction that diversity in phenomenal
nature in its different kingdoms is most
intimately associated with numerical
relationship. The numbers are not
intermixed accidentally but are subject
to regular periodicity. The changes and
developments are seen to be in many
cases undulatory.' Thus, I affirm every
class of phenomena, whether in nature or
on the*stock*market, must be subject to
the universal law of causation and
harmony. Every effect must have an
adequate cause.
"If we wish to avert
failure in speculation we must deal with
causes. Everything in existence is based
on exact proportion and perfect
relationship. There is no chance in
nature, because mathematical principles
of the highest order lie at the
foundation of all things. Faraday said,
'There is nothing in the universe but
mathematical points of force'.
"Vibration is
fundamental : nothing is exempt from
this law. It is universal, therefore
applicable to every class of phenomena
on the globe. Through the law of
vibration every stock in the market
moves in its own distinctive sphere of
activities, as to intensity, volume and
direction; all the essential qualities
of its evolution are characterised in
its own rate of vibration. Stock, like
atoms, are really centres of energy;
therefore, they are controlled
mathematically. Stocks create their own
field of action and power: power to
attract and repel, which principle
explains why certain stocks at times
lead the market and 'turn dead' at other
times. Thus, to speculate scientifically
it is absolutely necessary to follow
natural law. "After years of patient
study I have proven to my entire
satisfaction, as well as demonstrated to
others, that vibration explains every
possible phase and condition of the
market."
In order to substantiate
Mr Gann's claims as to what he has been
able to do under his method, we called
upon Mr William E. Gilley, an Inspector
of Imports, 16 Beaver Street, New York.
Mr Gilley is well known in the downtown
district. He himself has studied
stock*market movements for twenty-five
years, during which time he has examined
every piece of market literature that
has been issued & procurable in Wall
Street. It was he who encouraged Mr Gann
to study the scientific and mathematical
possibilities of the subject. When asked
what had been the most impressive of Mr
Gann's work and predictions, he replied
as follows :
"It is very difficult
for me to remember all the predictions
and operations of Mr Gann which may be
classed as phenomenal, but the following
are a few.
"In 1908 when the Union
Pacific was 168-1/8, he told me it would
not touch 169 before it had a good
break. We sold it short all the way down
to 152-5/8, covering on the weak spots
and putting it out again on the rallies,
securing twenty-three points profit out
of an eighteen point wave.
"He came to me when
United States Steel was selling around
50, and said, 'This steel will run up to
58 but it will not sell at 59. From
there it should break 16 points.' We
sold it short around 58 with a stop at
59. The highest it went was 58. From
there it declined to 41-17 points.
"At another time, wheat
was selling at about 89c. He predicted
that the May option would sell at $1.35.
We bought it and made large profits on
the way up. It actually touched $1.35.
"When Union Pacific was
172, he said it would go to 184-7/8 but
not an eighth higher until it had a good
break. It went to 184-7/8 and came back
from there eight or nine times. We sold
it short repeatedly, with a stop at 185,
and were never caught. It eventually
came back to 17.
"Mr Gann's calculations
are based on natural law. I have
followed his work closely for years. I
know that he has a firm grasp of the
basic principles which govern stock
market movements, and I do not believe
any other man can duplicate the idea or
his method at the present time.
"Early this year, he
figured that the top of the advance
would fall on a certain day in August
and calculated the prices at which the
Dow Jones Averages would then stand. The
market culminated on the exact day and
within four-tenths of one percent of the
figures predicted."
"You and Mr Gann must
have cleaned up considerable money on
all these operations", was suggested.
"Yes, we have made a
great deal of money. He has taken half a
million dollars out of the market in the
past few years. I once saw him take
$130, & in less than one month run it up
to over £12,000. He can compound money
faster than any man I have ever met."
"One of the most
astonishing calculations made by Mr Gann
was during last summer [1909] when he
predicted that September Wheat would
sell at $1.20. This meant that it must
touch that figure before the end of the
month of September. At twelve o'clock,
Chicago time, on September 30th (the
last day) the option was selling below
$1.08, and it looked as though his
prediction would not be fulfilled.
Mr Gann said, 'If it
does not touch $1.20 by the close of the
market it will prove that there is
something wrong with my whole method of
calculation. I do not care what the
price is now, it must go there.' It is
common history that September Wheat
surprised the whole country by selling
at $1.20 and no higher in the very last
hour of trading, closing at that
figure."
So much for what Mr Gann
has said and done as evidenced by
himself & others. Now as to what
demonstrations have taken place before
our representative :
During the month of
October, 1909, in twenty-five market
days, Mr Gann made, in the presence of
our representative, two hundred and
eighty-six transactions in various
stocks, on both the long and short side
of the market. Two hundred and
sixty-four of these transactions
resulted in profits ; twenty-two in
losses.
The capital with which
he operated was doubled ten times, so
that at the end of the month he had one
thousand percent of his original margin.
In our presence Mr Gann sold Steel
Common at 86, saying that it would not
go to 86. The lowest it sold was 86-1/8.
We have seen him give in
one day sixteen successive orders in the
same stock, eight of which turned out to
be at either the top or the bottom
eighth of that particular swing. The
above we can positively verify.
Such performances as
these, coupled with the foregoing, are
probably unparalleled in the history of
the Street.
James R. Koene has said,
"The man who is right six times out of
ten will make a fortune." He is a trader
who, without any attempt to make a
showing, for he did not know the results
were to be published, established a
record of over ninety-two percent
profitable trades.
Mr Gann has refused to
disclose his method at any price, but to
those scientifically inclined he has
unquestionably added to the stock of
Wall Street knowledge and pointed out
infinite possibilities.
We have requested Mr
Gann to figure out for the readers of
the Ticker a few of the most striking
indications which appear in his
calculations. In presenting these we
wish it understood that no man, in or
out of Wall Street, is infallible.
Mr Gann's figures at
present indicate that the trend of the
stock market should, barring the usual
rallies, be toward the lower prices
until March or April 1910. He calculates
that May Wheat, which is now selling at
$1.02, should not sell below 99c, and
should sell at $1.45 next spring. On
Cotton, which is now at about 15c level,
he estimates that after a good reaction
from these prices the commodity should
reach 18c in the spring of 1910. He
looks for a corner in the March or May
option.
Whether these figures
prove correct or not will in no way
detract from the record which Mr Gann
has already established.
Mr Gann was born in
Lufkin, Texas, and is thirty-one years
of age. He is a gifted mathematician,
has an extraordinary memory for figures,
and is an expert Tape Reader. Take away
his science and he would beat the market
on his intuitive tape reading alone.
Endowed as he is with
such qualities, we have no hesitation in
predicting that, within a comparatively
few years, William D. Gann will receive
recognition as one of Wall Street's
leading operators.