One
of the most basic and widely used
indicators is that of momentum.
Before I go on to tell you how we
can use the momentum indicator to
trade with, I want to explain the
difference between a leading and a
lagging indictor.
Nearly all indicators are lagging
indicators. That is to say that the
price must first move in order for
the indicators to react. So you will
inevitable get a situation e.g.
where the market will rise shortly
followed by the indicator. This is
where the term lagging comes form in
trading.
On
the other hand, an indictor that
forecasts the move before it happens
is called a leading indictor. If for
example the indictor peaks and then
turns down before price peaks and
turns down then that would be a
leading indictor.
You
can use most indicators as both
depending on how you mix them with
time frames and settings. The reason
I mention this is that momentum can
be a very good leading indictor when
used in a particular way.
Let's
first talk about what a momentum
indictor is - simply a visual
reference point of whether a
security is rising or falling and
how fast that rise or fall is.
Construction of the indictor is
simple - just subtract the close of
the security X (whatever period you
want)days ago from today's close.
The
resulting number can then be plotted
around a zero line. For example
let's say we were looking at a 10
period momentum indictor. You would
simply deduct today's close from the
close 10 days ago. If the close was
higher than the close 10 days ago
then it would be plotted above the
zero line. If on the other hand the
close was lower than the close 10
days ago, the it would be plotted
below the zero line.
As
you would expect - if the momentum
line is rising and above the zero
line we can interpret that as a
strong bullish trend. If the
momentum line is below the zero line
and falling we can interpret that as
a strong bearish trend.
As
you can see from our first chart,
momentum can be a very good
confirmation indictor. If you were
using a moving average or a trend
line to help determine trend, then a
cross above or below the zero line
could be just the confirmation you
need.

In
the example above I was using a 34
period exponential average of the
close. Price came back up and closed
above the average and shortly
afterwards the momentum indictor
also closed above the zero line
confirming the move. Not only that
but the momentum line has remained
above the zero line since the cross
over. This would give you confidence
that the trend is still in force.
In
our next chart there are two
important points I want you to take
note of - the first is that of
divergence.
Divergence is when an indictor does
the opposite of what the price on
the chart is doing. In our example
the momentum indictor started to
turn down but the price continued
up. This is bearish divergence.
Often when this happens it is an
early warning that the market is in
an exhaust move. The indictor is
giving us an advanced warning that
the market might be getting ready
for a move in the opposite direction
from which it was previously
heading. The opposite is obviously
true for bullish divergence.
Next
I want you to look at the three
points I have marked as extreme on
the chart. Forget the reading at
these points - visually you can see
that the three points are lower than
the other points around them. When
you have an extremely low reading in
an uptrend then you have a good
trading opportunity to go long. If
you have an extremely high reading
in a downtrend then
you have a good opportunity to go
short.
You
could further confirm this by a
shorter moving average crossing a
longer average or as I have done
with a little trend line. Nice,
simple technique that will keep you
on the right side of the trend and
give you some great entry points.
Traders' Glossary
-
Arbitrage
- The simultaneously purchase
and sale of identical securities
to benefit from a discrepancy in
their price.
-
Ask
- Also known as 'offer' - The
price at which traders are
prepared
to sell a security.
-
Bear
- Trader who believes prices
will move lower.
-
Bear Market
- A market that is in decline
(falling). A succession of lower
peaks and valleys.
-
Bid
- The price at which traders are
prepared to pay for a security
© Mark
McRae